On Friday afternoon, August 30th, a judge in Brazil declared the company to be in contempt of court, and declared that
Twitter / X should cease operations in Brazil immediately

any users accessing Twitter from Brazil by VPN will be subject to an $8000 fine (!)

https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-blocks-elon-musk-s-x-after-supreme-court-judge-s-order

Elon is not taking this lying down. He is posting about the case and the judge, in Trumpian fashion.

When will this conflict be resolved?

When will Twitter / X resume somewhat normal operations in Brazil? [Subject to new rules, perhaps.]

We will add some dates now, but keep the options open if the case drags on.

If we add dates these will be later dates.

So bet on Other for "never resolved" or "resolved later."

A couple of points

• for date of resolution we will use Brazil time (Brasilia, Rio)

• all dates are inclusive -- so "back by October 1st" includes announcement of agreement on October 1st.

• resolution will be by statement from either Brazil government or from Elon / official X sources

• if a resolution to bring back X is reached, we will use the date of the resolution, not the date the X is back on -- provided that these are reasonably close together

• in the most likely scenario when a resolution is reached, it will be announced and X will be back in Brazil within hours or possibly a day or two

• rumors do not count

• the announcement has to be official and clear, from at least one of the two sides -- Elon saying "we have reached an agreement and X will soon be back in Brazil" can count provided it is back soon after

• if the service is resumed and no one says anything [impossible] the that also counts

• if Elon decides to keep X turned off for Brazil... then there is no resolution

• we aim to resolve this market in 2024 or early 2025 at the latest