On Friday afternoon, August 30th, a judge in Brazil declared the company to be in contempt of court, and declared that
Twitter / X should cease operations in Brazil immediately
any users accessing Twitter from Brazil by VPN will be subject to an $8000 fine (!)
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-blocks-elon-musk-s-x-after-supreme-court-judge-s-order
Elon is not taking this lying down. He is posting about the case and the judge, in Trumpian fashion.
When will this conflict be resolved?
When will Twitter / X resume somewhat normal operations in Brazil? [Subject to new rules, perhaps.]
We will add some dates now, but keep the options open if the case drags on.
If we add dates these will be later dates.
So bet on Other for "never resolved" or "resolved later."
A couple of points
for date of resolution we will use Brazil time (Brasilia, Rio)
all dates are inclusive -- so "back by October 1st" includes announcement of agreement on October 1st.
resolution will be by statement from either Brazil government or from Elon / official X sources
if a resolution to bring back X is reached, we will use the date of the resolution, not the date the X is back on -- provided that these are reasonably close together
in the most likely scenario when a resolution is reached, it will be announced and X will be back in Brazil within hours or possibly a day or two
rumors do not count
the announcement has to be official and clear, from at least one of the two sides -- Elon saying "we have reached an agreement and X will soon be back in Brazil" can count provided it is back soon after
if the service is resumed and no one says anything [impossible] the that also counts
if Elon decides to keep X turned off for Brazil... then there is no resolution
we aim to resolve this market in 2024 or early 2025 at the latest
1,000
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Just to clarify.
The earlier (through Oct 1st) date includes if a resolution is announced Monday or Tuesday.
If the announcement is "X is back" but implementation takes some small time, that will still count.
So far no such announcement has been made. It's possible but seems not extremely likely.
As often happens, we chose a round number and it might come in right before the deadline.
However I agree with the market that a resolution soon... but not on Monday / Tuesday seems most likely. Even if a deal has been agreed to informally as reported.
@Moscow25 The time periods that have already passed can be resolved.
@Moscow25 Click "Resolve", choose "Many", and resolve the ones that have passed already. Don't resolve future dates
@Shihan how? can you send me a howto link like I suggested? I'm sorry but don't you think I tried this? Either the UX is confusing or this is not possible. If there was a video or doc on doing this I'd look at it.
@jacksonpolack right that's what I said -- sorry but I've gotten the comment "hey man resolve the expired parts early" in many markets and users don't seem to know what's possible... or believe me when I say I'd do it if I could
@jacksonpolack π
How does one make a market like the presidential debate side bets, where individual conditions can be resolved one at a time?
@Moscow25 the way this has played out so far, I wouldn't be surprised if what happens is something like.... There's a news article from Reuters, citing government sources or filings, but no official statement from either of the two parties (as mentioned very clearly and explicitly in description criteria). Would the article be enough, based on some official-but-not-widely-shared filing, or would you wait for some sort of official statement e.g. press release/interview/social media?
"if a resolution to bring back X is reached, we will use the date of the resolution, not the date the X is back on -- provided that these are reasonably close together"
Seems like it could easily be resolved/announced on Monday, and then X is back online Tuesday. Reading the question title I would have imagined Tuesday is the date for question's resolution, but I imagine you'd resolve it to Momday? Hence I'm asking about edge cases within that scenario.
@HenriThunberg Yes we will see.
If X is resolved / announced Monday and back on Tuesday... that would clearly count as YES for earlier date.
Of course a resolution after that (delayed more days) seems much more likely. Especially given this is Brazil
X is "requesting" to be back in Brazil. In the news the past two days....
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/social-media-platform-x-to-request-service-restoration-brazil-amid-vpn-ban-row-57ec7f9b
Will be close call if we make it by October 1st...
my DeepNewz AI news service is suggesting X may be back in Brazil this weekβ¦