As of August 4th, the main "Trump vs All" US Presidential election market has had $496M bet into it.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
This market has taken a large percentage of the total $ bet on Polymarket, as they went from $111M total bet in June, to $387M bet in July -- and on a similar pace so far in August.
https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket
Assuming this pace continues, we will likely get to a $1B market before the election, or possibly afterward [if the election is close, and continues being bet].
However the pace may not continue.
Maybe we'll get there soon, maybe we'll never get there. Maybe much of the betting handle will go into side markets, like Harris's VP pick. A substantial amount of the nearly $500M bet so far, went into betting about Joe Biden to drop out, or the Michelle Obama side-market. Now that those are trading below 1%... perhaps the Trump / Kamala market won't be doing $200M a month?
In any case, let's bet on it.
Resolution will be via the Polymarket website.
We will use Eastern Standard Time (EST) to resolve by day. Hence "between November 1st and November 6th" means starting at midnight on November 1st and ending at midnight of November 7th. In other words a few days before the election, the whole day of the election (Nov 5th) and the whole day after (Nov 6th).
Note also the "Other" category -- if the market is dissolved, cancelled, or hacked (g-d forbid) in a way that can not be restored. If the market is not settled in a relatively normal way, the Other will trigger.
Note also Polymarket's resolution criteria for this market.
In the case of a normal election, the Polymarket market should resolve on Nov 5th or Nov 6th. But it may resolve as late as Jan 10th in the case of a close and contested election.
"""
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
"""
1,000
3.00
@Moscow25 and yes... we know it's "inflated" but this is the number we go off of
let September unless something dramatic happens
@Moscow25 I've been marking down the volume in an excel sheet for some time now and the average rate seems to be roughly 10M/day, and at this rate seems that it will hit it ~4 days before October 1st, if nothing dramatically changes.
I imagine this market will heat up as we move along...
Currently at $750M. Although that counts total exposure, and a lot of that is on longshot bets like Michelle Obama, which aren't being made anymore.
The actual Trump / Kamala market is closer to $200M, and that's what we're talking about driving the rest of the handle.
