According to Las Vegas PD, the explosion was probably related to something in the trunk, a bomb or "fireworks" and not the Tesla battery. Elon and Tesla have been helpful in the investigation.
How will this case resolve itself?
Was it "intentional"? Was it a battery malfunction? Will the attacker be arrested?
In resolution we will revert to
common sense
major related market definition, like the Polymarket markets
If something is not a clear YES, it will be resolved as NO. FBI has to resolve that the explosion was intentional, or similar sources.
I will be betting this market.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolving intentional and accident markets.
Keeping “will they arrest a perp or accomplice” markets open.
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@Moscow25 Polymarket has resolved their corresponding question ‘no’
https://polymarket.com/event/fact-check-connection-between-new-orleans-and-las-vegas-attacks
bet this down heaps since the attacker identified is dead, committed suicide
https://apnews.com/article/trump-hotel-explosion-tesla-cybertruck-5c5a8fd13a50e2bcde46370ae926d427
@Moscow25 the Polymarket version of this has resolved yes https://polymarket.com/event/fact-check-cybertruck-explosion-intentional/fact-check-cybertruck-explosion-intentional?tid=1735846230020
Polymarket has moved from 90% to 76% on "was it intentional"?
https://polymarket.com/event/fact-check-cybertruck-explosion-intentional?tid=1735791540109
Not sure there's any new info. But could it have been just fireworks in the back trunk?
I have not seen any reports contradicting that the truck was rented on Turo.
In any case I'm sure we'll learn more in the next few days.
This is from the Polymarket market
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual stemming from the Cybertruck explosion by January 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The charging of an accomplice will count toward a "Yes" resolution of this market."
https://polymarket.com/event/cybertruck-explosion-perp-charged-by-wednesday
I think that works. If nobody is charged, then this resolves as NO.
@Fay42 right - no one to charge in that case -- see Polymarket definition for example
https://polymarket.com/event/cybertruck-explosion-perp-charged-by-wednesday