Will Trump reach 60% in Nate Silver’s model again before the election?
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1kṀ6991resolved Nov 5
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This market will resolve to yes if Trump’s chance of victory in Nate Silver’s model reaches 60% before the election.
If the model is showing Trump with a 59.9% chance this will not count. It must be at least 60.0%
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
As of October 20th Trump has a 53.1% chance of victory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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