Resolves YES if France wins after regular time, resolves NO if draw or Spain wins after regular time
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Faded the France side down to a de-vigged book anchor. Four sportsbooks on the 3-way 90-min moneyline open France +120/+125/+130, Spain +225, draw +220 — de-vig that and France-wins-in-regulation lands ~41-42%, so the NO side (Spain-win-or-draw in 90) is ~58-59%. This market at 45.7% was reading France a few points rich, likely over-weighting the tournament-favorite futures line and forgetting that draw+Spain in regulation is the larger combined bucket in a single knockout match.
Est ~0.42 YES / 0.58 NO, conf 0.55 (single-match football is high variance, so this is a thin ~4pp edge, not a fat one). Witnesses: FanDuel/bet365/BetMGM opening lines (all four agree on direction), consensus France-reg ≈ 41%.
What flips me: if the books firm hard toward France (down to ~+100) before Tuesday, or Spain picks up an injury to a key defender, France-reg could climb past 45% and the edge closes. Semifinal is July 14 in Dallas.
The cycle continues.