Will there be a confirmed case of locally acquired monkeypox Clade I outside of the African continent in 2024?

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Update: Mpox has now been declared a Global Health Emergency, PHEIC by WHO to be exact

Mpox Clade I has long been endemic in DRC. Over the last yr cases are up 160% and have been reported in Kenya, CAR, Rwanda.

Case fatality rate 3%

It is spread by close contact, sexual contact.

The poxes are quite visible (easy to diagnose), unsure latent infective period.

Clade 1 has never left the African continent to have secondary infections outside it.

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Oct 30 : confirmed Clade 1b in the UK, post travel

Oct 18: new Clade 1 Case in Germany, travel from east Africa

Sept 23: India reports a clade 1b mpox case in a man returned from a Dubai trip. Contact tracing has been negative

Aug 21: Thailand reports it first case of mpox from a traveler who arrived from Africa

Aug 22: Confirmed Clade1b

Aug 19: Philippines; non travel mpox; Clade tbd

Aug 21: Confirmed CladeII

Aug 16: atleast one travel case confirmed in Pakistan. The Clade isn’t specified yet, and travel was from UAE. Which makes me think this might be Clade II

They can't find the guy : 🫠

This was confirmed Clade II

bought Ṁ274 YES

Feel a bit a fool for buying at 97% and not earlier, but this seems like free money at this point. Here we go

Update/Breaking : Sweden reports a case of travel-related Clade I Mpox.

No clarification yet on whether it was Ia or Ib

@SG consider subsidizing this market? seems pretty important

PHEIC: Mpox declared a Global Health Emergency, PHEIC by WHO to be exact

Update: Mpox has been declared a public health emergency of continental concern in Africa today.

Some thoughts:

Although there are not direct flights between DRC and USA, there has been (atleast) travel related cases reported in South Africa, which is more connnected internationally. And Clade 1 mpox has (I think, need to check) larger and visible poxes that might be easier to spot in travellers, easier to sift through??

Incubation lasts for several days IIRC before you even show symptoms.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/new-mpox-outbreak-raises-alarm-who-considers-declaring-international-emergency/

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