Will H3N2 virus lead to more than one deaths in the US in 2023?

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resolved Jan 12

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YES

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H3N2 kills 2 in India. H3N2 caused the 1968 flu pandemic that led to the death of around one million people globally and about 100,000 in the US.

Since then the virus has changed a lot and humans have all sorts of immunological memory of it as well.

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📢Resolved to YES

Source: CDC.gov via VDH

predictedYES

@SirCryptomind Does that confirm the deaths are A(H3N2) or just some kind of influenza A?

@0x799 A(H3N2 was the dominate) for the season and only 3 deaths from A varients. So 27 - 4 = 23

@MitiSaksena Do you have the data to resolve this?
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Do you perhaps know where to get the simple data from Jan 1 2023-September-ish 2023 for H3N2 in US? I feel this 1 death is a low bar since H3N2 was the dominant Influenza A that season. I could be wrong though.

predictedYES

@SirCryptomind It’s surprisingly hard to find confirmation. The best bet might be to trawl the surveillance of a state that does a lot of sequencing, if there’s one like that. I looked at the CDC, California (doesn’t seem to list subtyping for pediatric deaths), and Texas (had A(H3N2) pediatric deaths listed for 2022 but not for 2023).

@0x799 Oh good idea, I'll check some state levels!

@0x799 Thanks, that worked, got me right to where I needed using my own states portal system.

Shouldn’t the base rate for this be very high, or am I misunderstanding the question? How would this question have resolved for, e.g., the 2021–2022 flu season, where the US seems to have had at least 13 A(H3N2)-associated pediatric deaths alone, according to https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7129a1.htm?