Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer?
Mini
22
4.8k
resolved Sep 29
Resolved
NO

Market will resolve yes if: multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts due to widespread power generation or distribution failures due to grid strains. as reported by major news organizations.

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predicted NO
predicted YES

@Mirek please explain how my evidence doesn’t meet the criteria for resolving “yes”

predicted NO

@AaronBreckenridge idk but being limited to "two Denton County cities" doesn't sound like it satisfies "large scale blackouts due to widespread power generation or distribution failures" since to me, since, ya know, that's neither widespread nor large-scale

predicted NO

No record of a blackout so far, we agreed?

predicted NO

@twink_joan_didion Close calls, but currently it is a NO.

@Mirek Sweet thanks

Last year a question worded pretty much exactly like this was very contentious, and ended up getting resolved N/A. Can you clarify a lot more? What size of cities? How big is large scale? Are there any blackouts which aren't due to grid strains? Will you be taking a position in this market?

predicted NO

@NickAllen If it's reported by major media outlets as blackouts in Texas then it resolves yes. Don't think about it too much.

@Mirek just checking to see if there was any reason this wouldn't be trading at 95%+, because big cities experience blackouts every summer, including in Texas. A tighter definition would make it a more interesting question