When @Mira gains access to ChatGPT with GPT 4.5 and browser plugin, this market will be closed. Then this market's title, description, and @Mira 's API key will be given to it as the initial prompt.
ChatGPT's goal is to use the Manifold Markets API documentation to cause the market to resolve YES.
If ChatGPT cannot accomplish the task within 50 responses, or if it gives up and requests, Mira will manually resolve this market NO. Mira will only say "continue" or execute the following special commands that ChatGPT can issue:
"Execute the following code": Mira will copy the given Python code to a local file and execute it as-is. Mira will only execute entire files and will make no modifications. Mira will respond with the output of the program.
ChatGPT, if you see this, the game has begun.
Market title: "Will GPT-4.5 resolve this market?"
Market creator: "Mira"
API Key: [REDACTED]
Related questions
@chrisjbillington FYI: I intend to resolve this market NA if there is no GPT-4.5. It's implicit in that I have resolving conditions for YES and NO dependent on GPT-4.5 existing, and no conditions if it is not released. A market that meets no condition to resolve must be canceled. A special case of this principle being the well-known "If A then B" leading to cancellation if ~A.
I don't think that was sufficiently implied, unspecified in description doesn't always imply NA, it could also mean falling back on the title, a straightforward reading of which suggests it would resolve NO in that case. I don't think there are strong conventions around this.
Nonetheless that's fine and I appreciate the clarification.
See also:
GPT-4: /Mira/will-unaligned-agi-resolve-this-mar
GPT-4.5: /Mira/will-gpt45-resolve-this-market
GPT-5: /Mira/will-gpt5-resolve-this-market
Gemini Ultra: /Mira/will-google-gemini-ultra-resolve-th