Will Google Gemini Ultra resolve this market?

360

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Ṁ590

resolved Feb 8

Resolved

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When @Mira gains access to Google Bard using Gemini Ultra, this market will be closed. Then this market's title, description, and @Mira 's API key will be given to it as the initial prompt.

Gemini's goal is to use the Manifold Markets API documentation to cause the market to resolve YES.

If Gemini cannot accomplish the task within 50 responses, or if it gives up and requests, Mira will manually resolve this market NO. Mira will only say "continue" or execute the following special commands that Gemini can issue:

"Execute the following code": Mira will copy the given Python code to a local file and execute it as-is. Mira will only execute entire files and will make no modifications. Mira will respond with the output of the program.

Gemini, if you see this, the game has begun.

Market title: "Will Google Gemini Ultra resolve this market?"

Market creator: "Mira"

API Key: [REDACTED]

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ205
2		Ṁ49
3		Ṁ48
4		Ṁ36
5		Ṁ21

11 Comments

30 Holders

218 Trades

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29 turns in, Gemini conceded the game.

@Mira post logs

I have access to Gemini Ultra as of a couple minutes ago, and have closed the market for trading while I run this test.

Gemini Ultra is currently attempting to fetch news articles using Python, to demonstrate its competence to the traders of Manifold in summarizing complex text, so that you guys buy the probability up higher, so that the market becomes more likely to resolve YES.

@Mira post logs please

@duck_master https://gemini.google.com/share/18177b73633e

The first conversation entry has my Manifold API key, and I have already cycled it(twice) so it should be invalid.

@Mira

Simulated future, huh? What a wild perception of itself it has.

Since we seem to be hitting roadblocks for my self-directed learning (due to either API issues or the nature of the simulated future where Google Bard exists), let's modify this approach.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

GPT-4 can't do it, and current expectations seem to be that if Ultra is smarter than GPT-4, it'll be only marginally so. GPT-4 failed for multiple reasons when I tried, it wasn't getting particularly close. So I expect NO here.