Deal:
Individuals: @Mira @chrisjbillington
Type of Deal: Virtual Shares in market
Target Market: /QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Quantity: 300,000 shares. @Mira owns 300k YES, and @chrisjbillington owns 300k NO
Price: 3.5%
Cost basis: 289,500 on NO, M10,500 on YES
Individuals have made a virtual exchange of shares off-contract. When the target market resolves, these virtual NO and YES shares will be manually exchanged for mana to match that resolution.
On NO resolution of target market, the holder of each NO share will be given M1.
On YES resolution, the holder of each YES share will be given M1.
On NA resolution, the deal will be canceled and no exchange will be made.
On PROB resolution, each YES and NO share will be partially paid out according to the resolution price and the net amount transferred.
Net payment is the share payout minus the cost basis.
Payments can be sent either as managrams, manalinks, profit transfers in special-purpose markets, or any other reasonable form the receiver requests.
This market resolves YES if either individual does not send payment within 1 week of the target market resolving, unless they mutually agree to extend the settlement date. NO if the shares are paid out in a timely manner. NA if the target market is canceled.
It is considered dishonorable to intentionally default to profit from this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ31 | |
| 2 | Ṁ26 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
People are also trading
I'm looking at all my old personal markets to cancel them because of the real-money pivot. This one seems problematic because "commitment to give me money, executed by the Manifold platform" makes shares in this market a security.
I'm going to just predict NO to save the admins a small possibility of trouble. I think they're probably too stupid to even understand it, but this market should probably be canceled.
I expect @chrisjbillington to send me cash if LK-99 is real(since transfers are forbidden), but we won't use Manifold to execute it.
I agree with this and commit to payment, including buying mana if necessary. Thanks @Mira for helping make progress on the long-term markets problem
