When will Gemini Ultra be released?
Basic
47
39k
resolved Feb 8
80%77%
February 2024
·
7mo
20%17%
January 2024
·
7mo
0.0%
December 2023
·
7mo
5%
March 2024
·
7mo
0.7%Other
·
7mo

When Gemini Ultra is released to the public, resolves to the linear interpolation between the nearest Anchor Dates. The anchor date for every month is the 15th except for February which is 14.

Resolves 100% Other if Google states they will never release it, or Google goes out of business, or the year 2028 is reached without Gemini Ultra being released.

Examples:

  • It is released on 2024-01-01. The nearest anchor dates are 2023-12-15 and 2024-01-15, which is a span of 31 days. This is 16 days into the span, so resolves 48% December 2023 and 52% January 2024.

  • It is released on 2024-01-17. This is 2 days into a span of length 30. February 2024 is a leap year but the anchor date is still 2024-02-14. January 2024 resolves 28/30 = 93% and February 2024 resolves 7%.

"Released to the public": No waitlist, release date is the first date it is available to @Mira in the US. @Mira gets announcements about Google Bard, so hopefully I should know the specific date I have access by checking my email history. Leaks do not count. This market uses PST timezone.

Gemini Pro is currently released to API and Bard. When will the Ultra size be available?

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I have access to Gemini Ultra as of just now. The span [2024-01-16, 2024-02-14] has length 30. February 8 is 24 days into it. So this market resolves 6/30=20% January and 24/30=80% February.

@Mira Whoa, where are you getting the access?

@Kierkegaard It should be available soon at https://gemini.google.com/ . Here's screenshot proof though:

@Mira Can you ask it a question for me? "Which weighs more, 2 pounds of feathers or 1 pound of bricks?"

Ugh, didn't read, tripped up by the format. Genuinely just assumed people were betting that it had like, secretly been released already or something. Enjoy my mana (on expectation) @ChrisPrichard

These have been moving a lot today. Is there news?

@ChrisPrichard from Reddit it looks like someone found Gemini "advanced" in the CSS on the bard website, it something like that, no announcement, it could be a Gemini Pro with more features

@VAPOR Oh that makes sense!

I guess the market is really sure that it's going to come out after the 14th of February? Based on the linear interpolation of dates, if it were to come out on Monday, that would still resolve 30% as January, I believe.

That is to say Feb. 5th would be 21 / 30 days in the span between Jan 15th and Feb 14th, which would be 70% February and 30% January.

Maybe Gemini Ultra will be released next week. At least in this article from "the information" written 2. dec 2023, they state that gemini was postponed to January 2024: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-postpones-big-ai-launch-as-openai-zooms-ahead