This is part of a series of markets about things I could do in 2024. See: /Mira/which-of-mira-s-cool-ideas-will-mir

Summary

I signed up for a Kalshi account a week ago. It's disallowed for me to trade on PolyMarket, but I can think of 2 people that would be willing to proxy bets for me or purchase information. There might be other markets too, like @BTE 's upcoming prediction tournament site.

I'm mainly thinking Kalshi for this.

You can also give me a million dollars to trade with to manipulate this market, if you think I'll be profitable with the money. Mira hedge fund incoming?

Market Mechanics

Trigger condition: I transfer $2500 to Kalshi or any other real-money prediction market site. Money can be denominated in cryptocurrency or any fiat currency.

Resolves NA if the trigger condition is not met. Otherwise, resolves to the logarithmic interpolation between nearest bounding answers(or to $1 if I start this but don't make any positive profit for the entire year). Units are "profit in USD". I'll add new options at multiples of 10 as needed before resolving.

Example: I make $500 in annual profit. The nearest options are $100 and $1000. Then this market resolves (ln(500) - ln(100)) / (ln(1000) - ln(100)) = 70% $1000 and 30% 100.

"Profit" is the net profits on all my real-money prediction market trading in 2024. I will have to track it for tax purposes(Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, so I think is taxed as futures?), and I would use that number to resolve this market. If I sell information because I can't trade, the sale amount counts as prediction market profits.

Mira will not trade on this market(or will market sell if I accidentally do).