Has GPT-4.5 already started rolling out?

GPT 4.5•AI•OpenAI•GPT-4 speculation•Language Models

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Many people are observing ChatGPT-4 claim to be "gpt-4.5-turbo":

https://chat.openai.com/share/e0458ead-2b28-4344-941f-9adfaa13dfe0

I'm also seeing people say on Twitter that GPT-4 has gotten better in coding ability the last day or so.

It could be part of a rolling release or A/B test. Seems like an odd mistake for it to make, especially happening just after false leaks of /Mira/will-gpt45-be-announced-on-thursday . Could be real, could be an OpenAI psyop, or could be a coincidence.

When GPT-4.5 is officially announced, will OpenAI mention in their announcement that these are genuine GPT 4.5 model interactions?

Resolves YES if OpenAI confirms that they have been slowly rolling out GPT 4.5 prior to the announcement. Either in announcement or by recording the model id in a traceable location(ChatGPT itself isn't reliable, but its system prompt would be).

Resolves NO if it is GPT 4.5 but it isn't confirmed anywhere.

Resolves NO if GPT 4.5 isn't released by end of year.

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bought Ṁ500 of NO

OpenAI staffer says it's a hallucination

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I'm getting the same as the shared chat, ChatGPT-4 consistently (on 10 out of 10 rerolls) claiming it is gpt-4.5-turbo, with no custom instructions.

bought Ṁ75 of YES

I'm not the kind of guy to take what an LLM says about itself on the face value, but this does seem like a strange kind of thing to be hallucinating consistently, unless there is some clear reason for it. I'm curious what the NO buyers think is the reason.

bought Ṁ60 of NO

@Lovre turbo is low temperature so it's easy to reproduce hallucinations

bought Ṁ55 of YES

@Lovre It knows about "gpt-3.5-turbo" since the knowledge cutoff was advanced; and it knows it's GPT-4. So it's not totally crazy to hallucinate "gpt-4.5-turbo".

Especially a term like "ChatGPT With Browsing" might indicate to it that it's a more advanced model. Hard to say.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Lovre I think GPT-4 turbo was once internally named GPT-4.5 and somebody forgot to update something, or the data they used to train it to say that is outdated. Also, don't forget that in all these transcripts it first calls itself GPT-4.

@Lovre Web or mobile?

If on web, you can open dev tools and inspect the network tab, check the api call being made.

That of course says nothing about what is happening no the backend, but for me the "conversation" call has "model: 'gpt-4'".

predicted NO

@DavidBolin I also replicated it and got "gpt-4" as model id. This isn't conclusive because "gpt-4" is an alias that is expected to update to the production variant of "gpt-4-turbo-preview" after they shake out the bugs.

It's worth checking if the backend fingerprint changed. I don't know how often they update it or have a historical list, but if it's ~every couple days, then an update on Thursday correlating with an updated fingerprint would be positive evidence.

@Mira I agree that isn't conclusive (and in fact I use "gpt-4" in production precisely to ensure that it will not be deprecated, for that reason.)

predicted NO

@Lovre It could think it's 4.5-turbo purely due to the date in the prompt changing. ChatGPT is usually updated before the API is.

Thanks everyone, I updated on your thoughts and immediately sold my position with only relatively slight losses, whereas if I had waited they obviously would have been much more substantial.