My last job was 2 years ago. Before that was a 4-year break. My second-last job ended in 2015. Will I ever get one again?

Resolves YES if:

• I ever receive two units of compensation on a regular schedule(weekly, biweekly, monthly) with no performance requirements other than the binary "Was I fired?", with amount at least my 10th percentile estimate.

Resolves NO if any of:

• I die(I have at least 50 estimated years of lifespan.)

• My projected investment income(such as dividends, rent, etc.) exceeds twice my 80th percentile estimate.

• I quit using Manifold for 6 months, stop responding to DMs, don't respond to admins emailing me for at least 1 month, and haven't otherwise made any statement clarifying timelines. (You can assume I'm dead for the purposes of this market.) I would consider it dishonorable to see such a message about this market and not at least say, "Oh yeah, I don't care about that market anymore", so I am more reasonable than most people to assume dead/disabled.

Resolves PROB if any of:

• Resolves to market if I get bored of this market existing, do not want to deal with it anymore, have not traded in it for 1 year, and choose to cancel the market by resolving PROB. (minimum duration 2 years, unless conditions to resolve YES or NO are met) .

• I delete my Manifold account at any time(resolves to probability at the time I delete my account) I do not plan to delete my account to manipulate this market.

Resolves NA if any of:

• I retain the option to NA this market in the first week for any reason or no reason at all.

• I can't think of a real scenario that I would NA, but I thought of a lot of scenarios just now and I probably didn't think of them all. Most likely would be someone convincing me that one of the PROB resolutions would be better as NA. Probably best not to wait until the trigger event happens before arguing that.

Job: Any W-2 job would count. 1099 jobs with a contracting agency probably count. Some custom deal like "We'll pay $X for you to build a software system for us" would not count. If I start a company and the tax agency requires me to pay myself a salary, it would not count unless the company was profitable that tax year. If I get a job in sales or at a hedge fund or some similar job where most of the compensation is bonuses, only the unconditional scheduled portion of compensation counts. My jobs so far have all been software development. Vesting stock grants would be included(if I accept a job so close to 10th percentile that I need a more detailed calculation, I will estimate the stock's beta against either S&P500 or NASDAQ(depending on industry) on the assumption that I could short a futures contract to lock in that amount as ~guaranteed)

Percentile estimate is my estimate of the distribution of incomes if I spend 1 month of focused effort applying for jobs and preparing for interviews. My 2019 estimated distribution was {10: $130k, 50: $250k, 90: $550k}/year and I accepted a 60th percentile position. 10th percentile minimum is intended to prevent market manipulation by somebody offering a fake job and paying me $1/week for 2 weeks or something; other forms of market manipulation(such as offering me a good job to resolve YES, or leaking insider information for me to trade on to resolve it NO) I guess would be okay.

Things that might resolve this market YES:

• Losing all my money buying call options on failed banks

• Getting bored of everything I wanted to do on my own, and deciding other people's projects are more interesting. (more likely than you would think)

• Noticing that the stock market is extremely volatile, so the value of 4 years of vesting stock grants that many jobs give is worth more than would otherwise be.

• A dream job landing in my lap. I'm not sure what that would look like, but it could happen.

Things that might resolve this market NO:

• Dying

• Buying call options on apparently-failed banks that end up not actually failing.

• Noticing that higher interest rates make expected value of long-vesting stock grants smaller, so applying & interviewing isn't worth the hassle compared to doing my own things. And this happens for 50 years.

Notes on market design: I normally never make markets that close more than 2 years out, because the retention rate of Manifold accounts is not that high, and because of discount rates. So I think nobody would rationally trade on such markets. So I'm hoping the PROB resolution and loans makes this "anywhere from 5 months to 50 years" market sensible to trade on, while the possibilities of early YES/NO anchor the PROB to the real world so it's not just "@Mira permanent stock".