Will GPT-4.5 be released in January?
GPT-5 Speculation•GPT-4 speculation•GPT-4
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resolved Feb 4
Resolved
NO

Can be private or alpha or on a waitlist as long as some official announcement is made.

Previous GPT-4.5 speculations:

/Mira/what-modalities-will-gpt-45-have-ja

/Mira/will-gpt-45-be-able-to-read-ascii-a

/SemioticRivalry/will-gpt-45-come-out-in-december

/Mira/will-gpt-45-be-announced-by-october

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

New theory: this account exists just to drive up polymarket prices

bought Ṁ0 of NO

If 31 days in January and one day left, this should be between 3 and 4%. ☠

predicted NO

@FlorinSays not really. Only if it started near 100% and you thought that a) that was correctly priced and b) the model you had in mind was one of a fixed probability per day.

predicted YES

For the record, it was a dumb joke, and I couldn't help myself not to write it.

predicted YES

Not sure if futuristflower is credible at all but:

bought Ṁ50 NO at 3%
predicted YES

@12c498e This makes it more likely, actually.

predicted NO

@Joshua Yes if it were actually cancelled (since that would mean it existed in order to be cancelled.) Unfortunately, it was not actually cancelled and the tweet is meaningless.

predicted NO

This is almost as stupid as the Jimmy Carter markets.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I love you all. Limit order at 15% for a day on NO. You may want to leave further size up.

reposted

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