Creator's manifold account seems to have been deleted. So, the quite clear "if Mira sees a Musk post" resolution is probably no good any more.

How do we feel about resolving this? I personally would buy No down to 2% except for the resolver having some creative interpretation of what counts as seeing a post, or maybe a bug that lasts a day or two, and consider the original question of the market resolved.

There is a misunderstanding.

Screenshot says that posts will be visible TO blocked users. But the market description implies that the contents OF the blocked users will be visible.

The question of the market is still valid: it is possible that blocking people will not let you free from their content. But the speculation described in the context of the screenshot is confusing.

@Henry38hw I hear that you feel confused, but I don't see any ambiguity in the resolution criteria.

@JamesBaker3 Nimo's statement is "you will be visible to the users blocked by you".

Resolution criteria is "you will be visible to the users you are blocked by".

As I said, market is valid, but the screenshot talks about the reverse direction.

@Henry38hw But you see the surrounding text, right? "People are speculating that this post: [screenshot] implies that Elon wants to force his posts to appear in everyone's feed even if he's blocked."

The market description doesn't make any claims that depend on anything inside the screenshot, and is completely consistent about "force his posts to appear in everyone's feed" being the topic and crux.

@JamesBaker3 there is no reason to propagate or mention the incorrect speculation, because the market is about the correct reading of the screenshot.

Having the screenshot and then resolution criteria is a clean way. Having literally a contrary speculation enforces the chance for people to misread the screenshot like twitterers already did.

"But you see..?" - I see, and the talk is not about me. Stop antagonising.

"The market description doesn't make" - again, I have said that resolution trigger is valid, stop fighting about that. I have said the combination is confusing (having opposite readings and jumping from one to another).

@JamesBaker3 here is an example of a technically true but confusing statement. (Phrase from a mathematician Alexander Wilce, punctuation preserved)

Or means either either or or and.

If something is correct, it does not mean there is no built-in confusion.

You seem to have an axiom "correct -> no built-in confusion" since you refered twice to the resolution criterion, while it is irrelevant to the thing I pointed out.

@Henry38hw I'm sorry you're experiencing this exchange as antagonistic. I hear that you're not looking for any resolution to your claim of misunderstanding so, I guess there's no problem and no reason for us to be communicating. Great. Good day to you.

@JamesBaker3 I have done sth to resolve the claim: i pointed out in the comment the thing that is likely to cause confusion.

Have a nice day.

https://apnews.com/article/x-musk-blocking-change-harassment-2f31853749daeb86db70db53f8b1f62f this change is implemented. Musk can see your posts even if you block him, no change to whether you see his.

I guess he could go and do this anyway, but the feature announcement that got us talking about this seems resolved.

You may have blocked someone on X but now they can see your public posts anyway

Elon Musk’s X has been modified so that accounts you’ve blocked on the social media platform can still see your public posts.

Looks like this pop-up from today agrees with the interpretation that you don't see musk's posts, but he can see yours.

Corner cases: if they do the change without thinking it through, blocked users show up in feeds and that is publicly demonstrated, but they get the big incredibly predictable backlash and backpeddle (on the feed part) within a couple days... That would still be a YES?

But if @Mira didn't look at Twitter in those few days... That's a NO as defined?

I would be open to both of those flipping, as I think that'd better reflect the spirit of the market. Or maybe this is just caveat emptor.

And what if this happens, but twitter staff claims it was a bug and unintentional and reverts it? Does "accidental" count as "force"?

@JamesBaker3 I have to see it, so if it happens and is reported but doesn't happen to me it won't count. Whatever X claims("it's a bug", etc.) won't matter: Only the fact of whether I see the post without intending to.

Which also means if I delete my X account, this market can immediately resolve NO.

I have no doubt he will, at some point

Digital Tyrant. What's next? Elon profile pic perma-pinned on screen?

https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/23/x-will-soon-make-your-public-posts-visible-to-accounts-youve-blocked/

"X will soon change the functionality behind its block button so that if you block an account, they will still be able to see your public posts, according to changes to X’s website spotted by independent app researcher Nima Owji. Elon Musk confirmed these changes on Monday, noting that blocked accounts will still not be able to engage with users who have blocked them, but they will soon be able to see their posts."

@FergusArgyll This just says that people you've blocked will be able to see your posts, not that you'll be shown theirs. So if OP has Elon blocked, then Elon will be able to see OP's posts, but OP still won't see any of Elon's posts, which means the market will resolve to NO. Am I missing something here?

@santiago

No, I'm stupid / tired ....

My YES bet is a hedge. Because if I see more of his tweets I will still lose.

I suspect he's only going to make it so that people you have blocked can still see your posts.. Unsure though.

By X feed, do you mean "following" or "for you"?

@CraigDemel "For you"

@Mira Actually, either will count. Any of these feeds, even the lists.

@Mira But you said it doesn't count if you add him to a list...

@JamesBaker3 It still doesn't: I'm not going to add him to a list, and if I intentionally add him using the API those posts won't count. But if he makes himself show up in one of my list feeds without me causing him to, it'll count.