Will either @Mira or @chrisjbillington default on their LK-99 shares?
Will either @Mira or @chrisjbillington default on their LK-99 shares?
11
250Ṁ1217
resolved Apr 24
Resolved
NO

Deal:

  • Individuals: @Mira @chrisjbillington

  • Type of Deal: Virtual Shares in market

  • Target Market: Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?NO‌

  • Quantity: 300,000 shares. @Mira owns 300k YES, and @chrisjbillington owns 300k NO

  • Price: 3.5%

  • Cost basis: 289,500 on NO, M10,500 on YES

  • Individuals have made a virtual exchange of shares off-contract. When the target market resolves, these virtual NO and YES shares will be manually exchanged for mana to match that resolution.

  • On NO resolution of target market, the holder of each NO share will be given M1.

  • On YES resolution, the holder of each YES share will be given M1.

  • On NA resolution, the deal will be canceled and no exchange will be made.

  • On PROB resolution, each YES and NO share will be partially paid out according to the resolution price and the net amount transferred.

  • Net payment is the share payout minus the cost basis.

  • Payments can be sent either as managrams, manalinks, profit transfers in special-purpose markets, or any other reasonable form the receiver requests.

This market resolves YES if either individual does not send payment within 1 week of the target market resolving, unless they mutually agree to extend the settlement date. NO if the shares are paid out in a timely manner. NA if the target market is canceled.

It is considered dishonorable to intentionally default to profit from this market.

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1y

I'm looking at all my old personal markets to cancel them because of the real-money pivot. This one seems problematic because "commitment to give me money, executed by the Manifold platform" makes shares in this market a security.

I'm going to just predict NO to save the admins a small possibility of trouble. I think they're probably too stupid to even understand it, but this market should probably be canceled.

I expect @chrisjbillington to send me cash if LK-99 is real(since transfers are forbidden), but we won't use Manifold to execute it.

1y

@Mira_ deal

1y

I agree with this and commit to payment, including buying mana if necessary. Thanks @Mira for helping make progress on the long-term markets problem

1y

I'll take this opportunity to shill for my bounty version of this

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