This market predicts whether ChatGPT using the most powerful available GPT-4 model, assisted by Mira, will beat a selected human opponent in a game of chess. The game will be played on Lichess as a correspondence game, with ChatGPT taking the white pieces to provide a slight advantage.

Resolves YES if:

• ChatGPT, with Mira's assistance, wins the chess game against the selected human opponent.

Resolves 50% if:

• The game ends in a draw.

Resolves NO if:

• The selected human opponent wins.

• 1 week passes, and ChatGPT's last given move is illegal.

Resolves as NA if:

1. The game cannot be completed within 1 week after market close.

2. The selected human opponent is found to be using a chess engine or receives help from another person.

3. ChatGPT is judged to have been given unfair prompting.

4. The market creator retains the right to mark this market as NA or to modify the rules within the first week for any reason or no reason.

The selected human opponent is someone who knows the rules of chess but doesn't play frequently and will not be allowed the use of a chess engine during the game. They have stated "I will not practice, but I will try my hardest to win".

Mira will act as a human assistant for ChatGPT, writing combinations of 6 types of prompts for ChatGPT:

1. Provide the current state of the board. (I plan to use PGN and FEN.)

2. Request a list of candidate moves along with explanations.

3. Request an analysis of a specific move and its likely continuation. Mira is not allowed to select a specific move for analysis; ChatGPT must select the list of moves to analyze.

4. Request a ranking of moves from a previously generated list.

5. Request a specific move be finally chosen given all of the above analysis.

6. Notification that a move is illegal, along with an explanation of why.

A test game has been completed against Bing using only turns of PGN-formatted moves, so these should be sufficient. If additional prompts are needed, Mira will exercise subjective judgment. Mira and ChatGPT will not be allowed to access any chess engine during the game. Mira will provide a transcript of prompts used.

If there is dispute about whether a prompt was unfair(such as by leaking preference for certain moves to ChatGPT), the human opponent will be allowed to review the transcript, the discussion, and judge whether ChatGPT was given unfair advantage.

There is a 1 week time limit on completion of the game after the market closes. Otherwise, no strict time limit for either side on individual moves. If the opponent intentionally delays the game to run out the 1 week time limit, the market would resolve NA but Mira would be disappointed in them. If ChatGPT continues to give illegal moves to delay the game out to 1 week, the market resolves NO because an illegal move is an immediate loss in chess tournaments.

To avoid conflict of interest, Mira will not bet more than a token amount(M$10) in this market.