[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Linked Market: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

This is a 100x-Fine Binary Market or Ultrafine market: It resolves the same as its linked market, but with 100x as much precision in limit orders. The numerical quantity represents "hundredths of a percentage point".

If the linked market is at 7%, this market should be at 700.

If this market is at 1234, the linked market should be at 12.34%.

If the linked market resolves:

NO: this market resolves to 0

YES: 10000

PROB = p: 100*p


Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:


predicts HIGHER

Thanks to @QuantumObserver for adding M10k of liquidity! That will make it possible to trade this market for price improvements even without using limit orders.

If I bet 1-3 mana the market value does not change. If i bet 4 mana, the market jumps to 768.

The additional precision look to be only in limit orders.

bought Ṁ0 of LOWER

@KongoLandwalker I think it needs more liquidity for market orders to have more precision too. But Manifold does track fractional mana, so you can set it to any precise value without losing mana to rounding.

I think mainly the order book needs more limit orders, though.

bought Ṁ5 of LOWER

@KongoLandwalker Try actually making the bet instead of looking at the "estimated value": I think the market value will change on small bets: the estimated value just doesn't show it if your bet is small.

predicts LOWER

@KongoLandwalker This bet showed (before placing the bet) that the estimated market value would be 661 after the bet

What a kludge!

I love that this exists

bought Ṁ100 of LOWER

5% = 500 right?

bought Ṁ0 of HIGHER

@Joshua yes. In general, it can resolve only to a multiple of 100, but you can place limit orders with more precision. And of course, since the LK-99 market is likely either YES or NO, it will resolve 0 or 10,000.

More related questions