Will Waymo announce 4 million driverless miles before the end of September 2023?
21
248
395
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
YES

Any annoucement including a blog post, company/verifiable employee social media post, or press release/news article is fine. Time ends at 00:00 on October 1, 2023, Pacific Time. Note that this market depends on a public announcement, so it still resolves to NO if 4 million miles are announced in October even if those miles were achieved in September.

(Note that driverless miles are NOT the same as self-driving miles. The later includes safety driver miles)

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ194
2Ṁ63
3Ṁ45
4Ṁ30
5Ṁ18
Sort by:
predicted NO

@FairlyFrozen Looks like I missed that, nice find

predicted NO

@MingweiSamuel Whoa. Sorry should have pointed this out. The press release from Waymo was 3.8 million on Sep 6. This article say 4 on Sep 1, so it is likely a rounding issue

predicted NO

@PC If the article wasn’t published on Sep 1, I would find it more credible

predicted NO

@PC looking into it, it seems the 3.8 million was actually from August 1? If I understand the whitepaper's phrasing correctly https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2309/2309.01206.pdf

predicted NO

@MingweiSamuel Ok more credible now :). I won't push for re-resolution then. (didn't lose that much mana)

But here are the arguments for other resolutions (that could be helpful for your future questions)

  1. N/A - Because this article was published before the creation of the market, the question is not applicable

  2. NO - Your question title and description make it seem like it has to be published by Waymo (ie. Waymo's website or twitter)

I would personally N/A

Waymo is at "over 3.8 million miles" as of September 6, 2023
https://waymo.com/blog/2023/09/waymos-autonomous-vehicles-are.html

@MingweiSamuel It seems the real question then is whether or not they'll announce the number of miles by the end of September, not whether they'll achieve it. Is there any pattern in their announcements? Their blog posts seem fairly random.

@WrongoPhD Hmm yeah I agree, maybe "will Waymo have driven 4M mi by the end of Sept and announce it before the end of Oct?" be a better (different) question. Cruise has been a lot quicker to announce

@MingweiSamuel I think it's a good question as is. I certainly prefer things that close sooner. I was just making sure there wasn't some type of Twitter account I wasn't aware of that was regularly announcing miles.

More related questions