Will Cruise's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2025
5
19
200
2026
38%
chance

Trying to give pretty precise resolution criteria-- will do my best to refine and resolve in the spirit of the question, and won't be betting.

Resolves YES if anything like these happen:

  • GM sells its controlling stake in Cruise to a competitor (e.g. no longer has >50% of voting shares; IPO does not count).

  • Cruise's driverless (Level 4 or 5) aspirations are abandoned in the immediate future. (For example, instead Cruise could aim for more conservative long-term self-driving goals: Level 3 [manned self-driving] or Level 2 [ADAS like Tesla "FSD"]). This would require Cruise or GM announcing such.

  • All public robotaxi ride-hail operations are shut down. ("Public" meaning non-Cruise/GM employees, regardless of fares or waitlists).

Resolves NO if nothing like this happens by the end of 2025.

Some examples of things that wouldn't result in an immediate YES resolution:

  • Paid ride-hail operations shut down, but unpaid rides to some members of the public continue.

  • Cruise decides to pivot to persuing self-driving trucking for some reason (but meanwhile public ride-hail operations continue).

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