Mass layoff a la the CA WARN act: a layoff of 50 or more employees within any 30 day period (which would require 60 days advance notice in CA).
Resolves YES if layoff notice of 50 or more employees is given and reputably reported on between now and the end of March 2024, even if the actual layoffs (60 days later) occur after the start of April 2024.
Resolves NO at the start of April 2024 if no layoffs have been announced or reputably reported.
Market ending in 2023: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-cruise-give-notice-for-a-mass
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Cruise announced layoffs of contract workers, which doesn't count as they are not technically employees, nor are they protected by the WARN act
And a humbled CEO Kyle Vogt confirmed to employees that the company will need to do layoffs.
... “But what I can do is commit to providing more details within the next three weeks. So, importantly that's not when layoffs would occur for full time employees, that's when we're going to give you an update on what that timeline might be.”
