This market resolves YES if the percentage at market close on January 2nd, 2025 after 11:59 PM ET rounds to a prime number. Otherwise resolves NO. Number will be rounded using the same rounding algorithm that Manifold uses to display to users.
For example, 19% would resolve YES and 8% would resolve NO.
Update 2024-26-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Rounding Behavior for Low Percentages:
1.5% would round up to 2 and resolve YES
1.4% would round down to 1 and resolve NO.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,798 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,310 | |
| 3 | Ṁ824 | |
| 4 | Ṁ375 | |
| 5 | Ṁ278 |
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@summer_of_bliss had a 50k limit ready, pressed it once clock it 11:59:59, “error”. whoops! gg gamers
@SentientTree 41%. initially thought 97% but too risky if someone had a huge no order waiting, they could blast through
@SentientTree yeah that’s a risk but i don’t think anyone would have had the reaction time to see 41 was prime then trade in less than a second
@summer_of_bliss I have primes memorized but didn't trust myself to get the last trade in.
If I was a whale I would've guaranteed a NO with limits between consecutive composite numbers. Lower values (8 & 9, 9 & 10, or 14 & 15) would provide better leverage against those piling on with NO at the last minute at the risk of someone being able to blast through. I'd put the NO up with ~8 seconds to go and YES with ~3 to account for lag (assuming I had a large pre-existing NO position that isn't going to flip).
@SentientTree this is a good strat actually. as with all these you’d have to be sure you’re the biggest player in the market tho bc of the risk you mentioned
@Brad Surely you didn't wait until 11:59:59 Eastern -- the market closed at 11:59:00, as I pointed out below!
If a whale puts up massive limit orders at the last minute, they can guarantee a NO resolution (by putting limits between composite numbers) or guarantee a 50/50 (between a prime and a composite). The only consecutive primes are 2 and 3 but putting a big NO limit at 3% is sure to lose money for the whale (everyone would buy YES and their position would flip to NO).
In other words, I don't see how this market could possibly be worth >50%
Looking to exit my position before the last-minute craziness - take my limit order at 38%! (YES is only worth 25%)
I sort of want to join the finaegling, but I also don't want to risk too much mana here. If I make a limit order and someone shoves through it, then I shouldve put more money in, but then I would have lost more money, and then that's just a risk loop
@VonGadke betting the market to exact percentage with limit orders at the moment of closing is the way to win probably.
@ProjectVictory That's right and that's actually what I intended to do. The only issue with this approach is that one needs to hold a large amount of money at hand at all times, which can be tricky.
@SentientTree There are a few ways to do this which yield slightly different answers, I just did a convolution of a gaussian kernel (sigma=5) with the discrete prime density function. I have limit orders at x=23 and x=28 because it should be in that range regardless, between the primes 23 and 29.