Related market since it seems less likely that they will:

https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/how-much-money-will-miri-raise-in-t

anyone wanna bet on yes? @ me

@Bayesian I mean, I bet yes, what's up? Or do you mean a real money bet?

@JohnDavidPressman I meant if someone wants to bet larger volume (3000mana+) on YES around 40% and the inherent market liquidity isnt enough for them to avoid slippage ill provide liquidity at that price bc id like to buy larger volume of no, but at the same time i dont wanna keep a potentially stale NO limit order up

@Bayesian Would you be interested in a real money bet? Say, $6 million USD?

@IsaacKing I'm not sure I understand the purpose of this taunting. Is the implication that you have six million to bet on MIRI's fundraiser which you have no interest in giving to MIRI? I guess I don't understand where your confidence comes from.

@JohnDavidPressman I think the joke is that by betting $6 million you could donate a bit less than that to MIRI to win the bet and get your money back, so that you just profit. You'd need at least that much capital in the first place though (or some way of getting it).

So these folks have been working on AI safety for 20 years and have received millions of dollars in donations. And they also claim to be one of the smartest groups of people in the world. Have they achieved anything tangible?

@ItsMe The announcement for the fundraiser has a good overview of what we've been up to lately and why we think it's worth funding!