Will Gigacasting's "Will SBF plead guilty?" market resolve correctly?

250Ṁ2397

resolved Nov 3

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market will resolve to YES if Gigacasting's market resolved to YES after, during the FTX trial, SBF pleas guilty.

It will resolve to NO if Gigacasting's market resolves during some earlier stage where it's not clear yet what the outcome of plea negotiations will be.

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Will SBF be vindicated?

5% chance

What should happen to the "what will CZ have to pay as part of the plea" question.

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predictedYES

Welp, gigacasting bought 500M$ YES.

Why does this close so soon?

predictedYES

@BTE Forgot to change close date.

Glad to see someone thinks NO would be a correct resolution today.

@BTE I don't think that? Check out the description.

@DeanValentine That first sentence seems to indicate a NO would be correct resolution. What am I missing?

predictedYES

@BTE The OR is an exclusive or.

predictedYES

@DeanValentine You're right that it's a bad description; changing. Capital OR meaning this market will resolve no if the latter part happens.

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Will SBF be vindicated?

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What should happen to the "what will CZ have to pay as part of the plea" question.

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