Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on which teams attempt more than 30 rushing plays during the NFL Divisional Round games on January 17-18, 2026: Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET), San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET), New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans (Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET), and Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET). Each team's rushing attempt count will be verified using official NFL box scores available on NFL.com or ESPN.com immediately following each game.

Background

The Buffalo Bills led the NFL in rushing attempts during the 2025 regular season with 471 total attempts. In their Week 18 matchup, the Seahawks' Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined for 171 rushing yards on 33 carries against the 49ers. The Broncos rank 17th in rushing success rate and 18th in PFF rushing grade, with their running back unit weakened after J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10. The Texans' ground game showed unexpected strength in the wild-card round, producing 5.3 net yards per rush with a 36.4% rushing success rate against Pittsburgh.

Considerations

The Seahawks allow a league-low 3.7 yards per carry and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 26 straight games, which may discourage opposing teams from committing to heavy rushing attacks. Game script and score differential will significantly influence rushing attempt totals—teams trailing late may abandon the run game, while teams with early leads may lean on it to control clock and field position.