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MANIFOLD
Will US rhenium net import reliance exceed 62% in the year ending December 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2028
52%
chance

This market resolves YES if US rhenium net import reliance exceeds 62% in the year ending December 2027.

What is being measured: USGS estimate of US rhenium net import reliance (%) for the calendar year ending December 2027 (published in USGS MCS ~February, settled March 31).

YES if: US rhenium net import reliance >= 62% for the year NO if: US rhenium net import reliance < 62% for the year Resolution sources (priority order):

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium section (usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center)

USGS Minerals Yearbook — rhenium chapter

Calculated from US Census Bureau BIS data (HS 8112.41, HS 2841.90) + USGS production

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