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MANIFOLD
Will US rhenium apparent consumption exceed 35 thousand kg in the year ending December 2029?
0
Ṁ100
2030
50%
chance

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable us_rhenium_apparent_consumption exceeds 35 thousand kg on March 31, 2030.

See measurable definition: measurables/rhenium/us_rhenium_apparent_consumption.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: USGS estimate of US apparent rhenium consumption for the calendar year ending December 2029 (published in USGS MCS ~February, settled March 31).

YES if: USGS US apparent consumption >= 35 thousand kg for the year NO if: USGS US apparent consumption < 35 thousand kg for the year Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium section (usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center)

  2. USGS Minerals Yearbook — rhenium chapter

  3. US Census Bureau foreign trade data for HS 8112.41 and HS 2841.90

Market context
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