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MANIFOLD
Will Ucore's Alaska Strategic Metals Complex be producing Sm2O3 at commercial scale on December 31, 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ10
2027
50%
chance

This market resolves YES if Ucore Rare Metals' Strategic Metals Complex (SMC) in Ketchikan, Alaska is actively producing samarium oxide (Sm2O3) at commercial scale on December 31, 2027 — defined as operational RapidSX processing of rare earth feedstock producing separated Sm2O3 at the scale described in DoD/Ucore project targets (not pilot or demonstration scale).

YES if: Ucore Alaska SMC is commercially producing Sm2O3 on the settlement date NO if: The facility is in construction, pre-commissioning, pilot/demo scale, care-and-maintenance, or not yet built as of December 31, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. Ucore Rare Metals press releases and investor updates (ucore.com)

  2. TSX-V (UCU) continuous disclosure filings

  3. DoD DPA Title III program updates (defense.gov)

  4. Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on critical minerals diversification projects

Market context
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