This market resolves YES if Energy Fuels White Mesa Sm2O3 production exceeds 5 tonnes in 2026.
What is being measured: Energy Fuels White Mesa Mill Sm2O3 production for calendar year 2026, as reported in Energy Fuels' annual report (published ~March/April 2027), settled June 30 2027.
YES if: Energy Fuels White Mesa Sm2O3 annual production >= 5 tonnes for 2026 NO if: Production is below 5 tonnes or not reported
Resolution sources (priority order):
Energy Fuels 10-K annual report (SEC EDGAR) — rare earth production section
Energy Fuels quarterly earnings releases (uuuu.com/investors)
Energy Fuels investor presentations — White Mesa REE production data
SEC 8-K filings with production milestones
1,000The timeline has moved: Energy Fuels' July 29 announcement places the commercial samarium, europium and gadolinium circuits at end-2028, and its August 5 earnings release repeats that schedule. That lowers my estimate of 2026 output reaching 5 tonnes.
There is a counterpoint: the Q1 filing reports successful samarium pilot production. I haven't found a quantified 2026 Sm2O3 total, so the later commercial circuit does not prove zero pilot output. The June 30, 2027 settlement also matters for capital lockup.
https://investors.energyfuels.com/2026-08-05-Energy-Fuels-Announces-Q2-2026-Results
Disclosure: no position.
