Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the United States Air Force or Navy conducts air or missile strikes against Iranian targets between January 14, 2026 and January 18, 2026 (inclusive). Resolution will be based on official U.S. military statements, credible news reporting from major outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.), or statements from the U.S. Department of Defense. Strikes must be confirmed as originating from U.S. forces and targeting Iranian territory or Iranian military assets. Strikes by Israel or other nations do not count toward resolution.

Background

The U.S. last conducted strikes on Iran on June 22, 2025, when the Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan) using B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles. Options currently being presented to Trump range from targeted strikes inside Iran to offensive cyber attacks, with potential tools including cyber, sabotage, drones and missile strikes from air and sea. At least 646 people have been killed during ongoing anti-government protests that began in late December 2025. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has confirmed talks with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, with dialogue continuing.

Considerations

Though Trump has made provocative statements about military action, a U.S. official stated that no major changes have been made to troop levels, nor have there been preparations in the Middle East. The White House press secretary stated that "diplomacy is always the first option for the president", suggesting military action remains uncertain despite public rhetoric. It remains unclear how serious Iran is about launching a strike, particularly after seeing its air defenses destroyed during the 12-day war in June.