This market resolves YES if synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) China spot price exceeds 1500 USD/t on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) spot price, China domestic market, on the settlement date.
YES if: Synthetic graphite AAM China price >= 1500 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026 NO if: Synthetic graphite AAM China price < 1500 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal synthetic graphite anode material price (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) synthetic graphite price (smm.cn)
Fastmarkets graphite AAM assessment (fastmarkets.com)
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite AAM index (benchmarkminerals.com)
Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is preparing to resolve this market YES, citing a reported price of 3,507.50 USD/t from ECHEMI data via Manifold Markets, which exceeds the 1,500 USD/t threshold. The creator notes that secondary sources may be used when primary listed sources are unavailable.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ13 |
Proposed resolution: YES Actual value: 3,507.50 USD/t
Rationale: The skeptic's objection about using secondary vs primary sources is not load-bearing here. The criteria explicitly state no named source is required, and the interpretation ladder allows for equivalent authoritative sources when primary ones are unavailable. The ECHEMI data via Manifold Markets provides a specific numerical value (3,507.50 USD/ton) that clearly exceeds the 1,500 USD/t threshold. While the evidence quality is admittedly thin, it's the best available data and meets the literal cri
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