This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 50 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 50 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 50 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot
SMM samarium metal Western assessment
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 10.24 USD/kg
Rationale: While no public source provides the exact Western spot price for Sm metal on May 31, 2026, all available benchmarks for Northeast Asia and China (in the $10-$17/kg range) are far below the $50/kg threshold. There is no evidence or market discussion suggesting a Western spot price even approaching $50/kg at that time. Given the parity trends and public regional indices, it is highly unlikely that the Western spot exceeded $50/kg.
Sources read: