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MANIFOLD
Will Kamoa-Kakula copper production exceed 500,000 tonnes for calendar year 2027?
2
Ṁ10kṀ6.1k
2028
24%
chance

Resolves YES if Kamoa-Kakula's total copper in concentrate production for the calendar year January–December 2027 exceeds 500,000 tonnes (100% basis), as reported in Ivanhoe Mines quarterly production reports. Resolves NO otherwise.

Settlement is June 30, 2028 to allow time for Q4 2027 production data to be published (Ivanhoe reports quarterly with ~45 day lag). The Q4 2027 report is typically available by mid-February 2028.

Context: The 500,000 tpa target was Ivanhoe's flagship milestone — the point at which Kamoa-Kakula would rank among the world's top 3 copper mines. Originally targeted for 2027, flooding in May 2025 and a reserve downgrade in March 2026 pushed the timeline to 2028. Phase 3 commissioning and the Project 95 recovery upgrade are both required to reach this rate.

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