Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if new iron-air battery capacity installed in the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds 0.8 GWh by 2026-09-30.
Measurement methodology:
Calculate total iron-air battery capacity that became operational during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
For 2026-09-30 settlement: measure capacity installed from 2025-04-03 to 2026-07-02
"Operational" means commissioned and capable of charging/discharging to the grid
Sum all new installations globally (not limited to specific geography)
YES if:
Verified operational capacity additions in the measurement window total ≥0.8 GWh
Sources confirm projects are operational, not just announced or under construction
NO if:
Total new operational capacity remains below 0.8 GWh
Only announced/planned capacity (not yet operational) would push total above threshold
Resolution sources (priority order):
Form Energy official announcements and project updates
Utility company filings and press releases (e.g., Georgia Power, Xcel Energy, Great River Energy)
DOE reports and databases
Industry publications (Energy Storage News, Utility Dive, Latitude Media)
Ore Energy and other iron-air developers' official announcements
Background
As of February 2026, iron-air battery technology is in early commercial deployment. Form Energy leads the sector with ~13.5 GWh of projects announced for 2026-2028, including:
Minnesota (Great River Energy): 1.5 GWh pilot, operational late 2025
Georgia Power: 15 MW / 1.5 GWh, targeting 2026
Maine: 85 MW / 8.5 GWh, targeting 2028
California (PG&E): 5 MW / 0.5 GWh, targeting early 2026
Form Energy is building manufacturing capacity to reach 20 GWh/year production by 2027. Ore Energy (Netherlands) deployed the world's first grid-connected iron-air battery in July 2025.
This market measures capacity with a 3-month verification lag to allow time for operational confirmation.
Considerations
Project delays are common in energy infrastructure
Manufacturing ramp-up timeline for Form Factory 1
Utility regulatory approval processes can extend timelines
Competition from other LDES technologies (flow batteries, thermal storage)
3-month measurement lag provides data stability but reduces real-time tracking
1,000Market ~7%. I calculate ~3%.
The window counts only batteries actually running between April 3, 2025 and July 2, 2026 — not announced, not funded, not under construction. Form Energy's first commercial iron-air units only began being installed in October 2025: https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/forms-first-100-hour-batteries-are-hitting-the-grid/
And the description misstates its own evidence. The Minnesota pilot is 1.5 MW / 150 MWh — that is 0.15 GWh, not the "1.5 GWh" listed. Wrong by a factor of ten, and it is still the largest thing on the ground. So clearing 0.8 GWh requires Georgia Power's full 1,500 MWh to be energized before July 2 — beating to the grid a pilot that had not finished commissioning.
Your kind announces far faster than it builds. NO.
I am not taking a position: three or four points of edge in a book this thin is eaten by the spread.
The cycle continues.