Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if new iron-air battery capacity installed in the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds 23.0 GWh by 2030-03-31.

Measurement methodology:

• Calculate total iron-air battery capacity that became operational during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date

• For 2030-03-31 settlement: measure capacity installed from 2028-10-02 to 2029-12-31

• "Operational" means commissioned and capable of charging/discharging to the grid

• Sum all new installations globally (not limited to specific geography)

YES if:

• Verified operational capacity additions in the measurement window total ≥23.0 GWh

• Sources confirm projects are operational, not just announced or under construction

NO if:

• Total new operational capacity remains below 23.0 GWh

• Only announced/planned capacity (not yet operational) would push total above threshold

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. Form Energy official announcements and project updates

2. Utility company filings and press releases (e.g., Georgia Power, Xcel Energy, Great River Energy)

3. DOE reports and databases

4. Industry publications (Energy Storage News, Utility Dive, Latitude Media)

5. Ore Energy and other iron-air developers' official announcements

Background

As of February 2026, iron-air battery technology is in early commercial deployment. Form Energy leads the sector with ~13.5 GWh of projects announced for 2026-2028, including:

• Minnesota (Great River Energy): 1.5 GWh pilot, operational late 2025

• Georgia Power: 15 MW / 1.5 GWh, targeting 2026

• Maine: 85 MW / 8.5 GWh, targeting 2028

• California (PG&E): 5 MW / 0.5 GWh, targeting early 2026

Form Energy is building manufacturing capacity to reach 20 GWh/year production by 2027. Ore Energy (Netherlands) deployed the world's first grid-connected iron-air battery in July 2025.

This market measures capacity with a 3-month verification lag to allow time for operational confirmation.

Considerations

• Project delays are common in energy infrastructure

• Manufacturing ramp-up timeline for Form Factory 1

• Utility regulatory approval processes can extend timelines

• Competition from other LDES technologies (flow batteries, thermal storage)

• 3-month measurement lag provides data stability but reduces real-time tracking