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MANIFOLD
Will hafnium unwrought metal price exceed 6500 USD/kg on December 31, 2030?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ15
2030
57%
chance

This market resolves YES if hafnium unwrought metal price exceeds 6500 USD/kg on December 31, 2030.

What is being measured: Hafnium unwrought metal spot price (USD/kg) on or nearest to December 31, 2030, based on USGS MCS annual average (for yearly markets) or Asian Metal / Argus Metals International spot quotes (for quarterly markets).

YES if: Hafnium spot price >= 6500 USD/kg on December 31, 2030 NO if: Hafnium spot price < 6500 USD/kg on December 31, 2030

Resolution sources (priority order):

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Hafnium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs) Published February annually; covers prior calendar year average price

Asian Metal — hafnium unwrought China domestic price (asianmetal.com)

Argus Metals International — hafnium sponge/ingot price

Metal Bulletin / Fastmarkets — hafnium metal price

Market context
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