Will global primary rhenium production exceed 95 thousand kg in the year ending December 2028?

Question

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable global_rhenium_primary_production exceeds 95 thousand kg on March 31, 2029.

See measurable definition: measurables/rhenium/global_rhenium_primary_production.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: USGS estimate of world primary rhenium production for the calendar year ending December 2028 (reported in the USGS MCS published ~February, settled March 31).

YES if: USGS global primary Re production >= 95 thousand kg for the year NO if: USGS global primary Re production < 95 thousand kg for the year Resolution sources (priority order):

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium section (usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center)

USGS Minerals Yearbook — rhenium chapter

CRU Group or Wood Mackenzie rhenium production data

Molymet annual report — rhenium processing volumes (proxy for global share)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (1 traders, as of Apr 7, 2026).

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