This market resolves YES if China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceeds 26 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Nuclear-grade zirconium sponge ex-works China spot price (USD/kg, Hf < 100 ppm) on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: China Zr sponge price >= 26 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: China Zr sponge price < 26 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal — zirconium sponge China domestic spot price (asianmetal.com)
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Zirconium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — zirconium sponge price (smm.cn)
Argus Metals International — zirconium sponge China
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 20.89 USD/kg
Rationale: The skeptic's objection is partially valid in noting the 11-day gap between the observed price (June 19) and settlement date (June 30), but it is not load-bearing enough to flip the outcome. The zirconium sponge market is characterized by small daily price movements, and a jump from ~$20.89/kg to above $26/kg (a >24% increase) in 11 days would be extraordinary and unprecedented based on all available context. The USGS 2025 historical price of ~$22/kg and the supply chain context showing no deman
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