This market resolves YES if China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceeds 38 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Nuclear-grade zirconium sponge ex-works China spot price (USD/kg, Hf < 100 ppm) on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: China Zr sponge price >= 38 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: China Zr sponge price < 38 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal — zirconium sponge China domestic spot price (asianmetal.com)
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Zirconium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — zirconium sponge price (smm.cn)
Argus Metals International — zirconium sponge China
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 20.89 USD/kg
Rationale: The closest available spot price for China ex-works zirconium sponge is 20.89 USD/kg on June 19, 2026, per ScrapMonster. This is well below the 38 USD/kg threshold. The USGS annual average for 2026 is 22 USD/kg, further confirming that the price did not approach or exceed 38 USD/kg around the settlement date. No evidence from any consulted sources indicates a price spike to or above the threshold on or near June 30, 2026.
Sources read: