This market resolves YES if China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceeds 38 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Nuclear-grade zirconium sponge ex-works China spot price (USD/kg, Hf < 100 ppm) on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: China Zr sponge price >= 38 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: China Zr sponge price < 38 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal — zirconium sponge China domestic spot price (asianmetal.com)
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Zirconium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — zirconium sponge price (smm.cn)
Argus Metals International — zirconium sponge China
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 20.99 USD/kg
Rationale: The closest available spot price for China ex-works zirconium sponge is $20.99/kg on May 19, 2026, from ScrapMonster, which is well below the $38/kg threshold. No evidence from consulted sources (including USGS, Asian Metal, SMM, CBCIE, Argus, and Fastmarkets) suggests the price approached or exceeded $38/kg near the settlement date. While the research is thin and the exact May 31, 2026 price is not available, all available data and annual benchmarks support a NO resolution.
Sources read: