This market resolves YES if China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceeds 6000 USD/t on April 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Battery-grade coated spherical graphite (≥99.95% C, D50 ~15–20μm) spot price in China's domestic market, in USD/t.
YES if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price ≥ 6000 USD per tonne on April 30, 2026 NO if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price < 6000 USD per tonne on April 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal spherical graphite price (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) spherical graphite price (smm.cn)
Fastmarkets battery graphite assessment (fastmarkets.com)
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 1,728.10 USD/t
Rationale: The skeptic raises valid concerns about the coating premium and data gaps, but the objection doesn't overcome the weight of available evidence. Multiple industry sources consistently show uncoated spherical graphite at ~$1,700/t, and even high-end artificial graphite at $4,200-6,600/t. While coated material commands a premium, it would need to be 3.5x+ the uncoated price to exceed $6,000/t - an unprecedented margin that would have generated market commentary if it occurred. The absence of any ev
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