This market resolves YES if Brazil's trailing 6-month ferroniobium export volume exceeds 65 kt on December 31, 2026.

What is being measured: Cumulative Brazilian exports of ferroniobium (HS 7202.93) to all global destinations, in kilotonnes, for the 6-month period ending 3 months before December 31, 2026. The 3-month lag ensures MDIC/Siscomex data has been published for all months in the window.

Measurement window:

Settlement June 30: October (prior year) – March (current year) total

Settlement December 31: April – September (current year) total

Unit conversion: MDIC/Siscomex data may be in tonnes; divide by 1,000 for kt. Use net weight if gross and net weight are both reported.

YES if:

MDIC/Siscomex or UN Comtrade confirms trailing 6-month HS 7202.93 exports exceed 65 kt for the applicable window

NO if:

Exports for the 6-month window are ≤ 65 kt per available customs data

If no customs data is available: mirror import data from key destinations (Japan, South Korea, Germany) used as proxy; if proxy ≤ 65 kt, resolves NO

Primary sources:

MDIC/Siscomex (comexstat.mdic.gov.br) — Brazil export statistics, HS 7202.93, monthly; published ~2 months post-reference month

UN Comtrade Database (comtrade.un.org) — Brazil-reported exports, HS 720293

Secondary sources: 3. WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) — HS 720293 Brazil export cross-check 4. Mirror import data — Japanese, South Korean, German customs statistics for HS 720293 5. CBMM Annual Sustainability Report — annual FeNb sales volume as full-year proxy