This market resolves YES if CBMM's trailing 12-month ferroniobium output exceeds 135 kt on December 31, 2026.

What is being measured: Total ferroniobium (FeNb) produced by CBMM at the Araxá complex, in kilotonnes, for the 12-month period ending 3 months before December 31, 2026. The 3-month lag allows CBMM's annual sustainability report and IBRAM data to be published.

Measurement window:

• Settlement June 30: April (prior year) – March (current year) total

• Settlement December 31: October (prior year) – September (current year) total

Unit conversion: If CBMM reports in kt Nb, apply: kt FeNb = kt Nb / 0.65. If USGS or IBRAM data is in tonnes Nb, convert to kt FeNb = t Nb / 650.

YES if:

• CBMM, IBRAM, or USGS data confirms trailing 12-month FeNb output exceeds 135 kt

NO if:

• Output for the 12-month window is ≤ 135 kt per available sources

• If no data is available for the specific 12-month window: use most recent full calendar year as proxy; if proxy ≤ 135 kt, resolves NO

See measurable definition: measurables/niobium/cbmm_niobium_output_kt.measurable.yaml

Primary sources:

1. CBMM Annual Sustainability Report (cbmm.com.br) — FeNb production volume

2. IBRAM (Instituto Brasileiro de Mineração) — annual Nb production statistics

3. Sojitz Corporation annual report — CBMM output disclosures

Secondary sources: 4. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — niobium chapter (annual, published ~February) 5. ANM (Agência Nacional de Mineração) — Brazil mineral production database 6. AMG Advanced Metallurgy / Niobras production data — cross-check on Brazilian total