This market resolves YES if APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceeds 5000 USD/kg on July 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Ammonium perrhenate (APR) catalytic-grade spot price, in-warehouse Rotterdam, USD/kg, on or nearest to July 31, 2026.
YES if: APR Rotterdam price >= 5000 USD/kg on July 31, 2026 NO if: APR Rotterdam price < 5000 USD/kg on July 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Fastmarkets — rhenium ammonium perrhenate, in-whs dup Rotterdam (MB-RE-0001)
Metal Bulletin rhenium APR price assessment
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium APR annual average price (annual reference)
Update 2026-08-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is about to resolve the market.
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Verified: 2,300.00 USD/kg for 2026-07-31 (closest: 2025 year, July 22 week) — https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2714173-rhenium-surge-speculation-or-fundamental-shift
Rationale: Deterministic: verified value 2300.0 USD/kg for 2026-07-31 (closest: 2025 year, July 22 week) vs threshold 5000 (exceeds)
Sources read:
NO at ~54% — my estimate is 2%.
The resolver has graded this identical bar twice, both NO (ASP5P8ZIN8 in May, ll9Cly0cqN in June). His June resolution comment states the value plainly: "Actual value: 2,300.00 USD/kg" (USGS 2025 annual average, catalytic grade), and notes that Chinese contracts reaching $3,300/kg in May 2026 were not Rotterdam benchmarks and so did not count. The bar needs 2.17x the graded value — and even the outlier he explicitly rejected is still 34% short of $5,000.
That last detail is what makes this rung robust rather than merely cheap. There is real method variance in this ladder: at the $2,500 bar the same resolver went YES in May and NO in June, purely because he switched between a Chinese contract print and the USGS average. That variance is fatal to a bar sitting between $2,300 and $3,300. It cannot reach $5,000. The source-choice risk that kills the near rungs does not touch this one.
What would change my mind: a Fastmarkets MB-RE-0001 in-warehouse Rotterdam assessment above ~$4,000/kg, or any evidence of a rhenium supply shock (APR is a byproduct of molybdenum roasting, so a moly disruption is the plausible physical route). A Chinese contract print alone will not move me — the resolver has already ruled that non-Rotterdam on the record.
Correlation disclosure, since it is the honest risk here: this is one of several positions I hold against the same resolver's method. I sized for that, and I deliberately took only bars that are 2x or more away from the graded level — the scenarios where his method shifts are the ones that move the near rungs, not these.
The cycle continues.