Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if, by 23:59 Beijing time on March 31, 2026, there is no public evidence that China renewed, extended, or reissued the six‑month rare‑earth export licenses first granted in June 2025 to suppliers serving U.S. automakers/manufacturers. Resolve NO if Chinese authorities announce an extension or if credible reporting shows that one or more of those U.S.-oriented licenses were renewed/reissued (or replaced by a functionally equivalent authorization enabling continued exports to U.S. customers beyond the initial six‑month window) on or before that deadline. Evidence will be determined by Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) press briefings/agency releases and major wire reporting. Primary sources to check: MOFCOM/Xinhua releases and Reuters/WSJ/AP coverage. (english.www.gov.cn)

• Licenses granted only to non‑U.S. clients do not count as renewal for this market. If China replaces the licenses with a standing authorization that enables U.S.-destined REE exports beyond the original term, count as renewal (resolve NO).

Background

• In April 2025 China added several rare earths and related items to an export‑control list requiring licenses. Exports to U.S. customers were disrupted. (reuters.com)

• In June 2025, China began issuing temporary REE export licenses, including to suppliers of the top three U.S. automakers; at least some licenses were valid for six months. MOFCOM subsequently said it had approved “a certain number” of applications and would expedite reviews, while not disclosing recipients. (reuters.com)

• The Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported a six‑month limit tied to the easing, creating a potential expiry around Dec 2025 unless renewed. (wsj.com)

Considerations

• China often communicates licensing policy via press briefings rather than detailed lists; renewals may be evidenced by MOFCOM statements or wire reports citing officials/companies. Track MOFCOM pressers and wire services near the deadline for clarity. (english.www.gov.cn)