Background: I am trying to encourage the development of good open-source judgmental prediction.
Rule: Authors of packages should not participate in this market.
Resolution: I will ask Gemini to deep research the comments here and the repositories and decide which repository contributes the best contribution to person-kind, at least as far as it concerns the development of good open-source packages that can potentially help make manifold markets more efficient.
I have made some attempt to summarize them here: https://github.com/microprediction/manifoldbot/blob/main/ALTERNATIVES.md
I suggest that you also star the repositories you like as authors will appreciate that.
Repos are listed in no particular order.
I have no horse in this race.
1,000People are also trading
@256 they can, the description just said "shouldn't", and it's as simple as they'd bet most heavily on themselves, and maybe only one or a few of them find this market, and then drive up their own bots.
@Sketchy I am very interested in the framework, but at the same time I’d advise against it as it would probably take more alpha away from your bots lol
@Mochi the framework itself is pretty “draw the rest of the owl”. It would useful for people trying to build their own bots, but relatively useless to get insight into my bot strategies.
That being said I think people would be surprised how simple the strategies are. There’s really not any fancy statistics, llms, or things like that going into it, just some experimentally tuned parameters and basic ideas.
@Sketchy I'm trying to code one rn and run it on railway, seeing some of the code of Dagonet would be amazing, whatever you think is useful, but not too much.