Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if Freeport-McMoRan begins a phased restart and ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine in Q2 2026 (April-June 2026). Resolution will be based on official announcements from Freeport-McMoRan or PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) confirming production restart at the Block Cave section. The market resolves NO if restart does not occur by June 30, 2026.

Background

A significant mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in September 2025 resulted in approximately 800,000 tonnes of wet material entering the mine, affecting multiple levels including crucial service areas. Production from the unaffected Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan underground mines resumed in late October. Freeport expects 2026 production to be similar to 2025 at about 1 billion pounds of copper and 900,000 ounces of gold—approximately 35% lower than pre-incident estimates.

Considerations

The Block Cave mine accounts for half of Grasberg's entire mineral reserves and is set to account for 70% of production, making its restart critical to Freeport's operations. The phased restart plan represents a recovery from a major operational disruption, and delays beyond Q2 2026 could significantly impact global copper and gold supply.