Resolves YES if the Trump administration officially announces a floor price per kilogram (USD) for cerium (typically as cerium oxide) under Project Vault that exceeds 4.75 USD/kg; resolves NO if at or below 4.75 USD/kg or if no such price floor is announced for cerium. Settlement occurs upon official publication by the White House, Department of Commerce, State Department, or equivalent government source reporting the specific floor price for cerium in Project Vault documentation, press releases, or related ministerial announcements—not leaks, drafts, or unofficial statements. Cerium faces extreme supply risks with China controlling 90% of production, used heavily in automotive catalysts and electronics; current market prices hover at 4-5 USD/kg (Feb 2026 est.), while suggested floors range 5-6 USD/kg to incentivize US production amid Project Vault's $12B strategic reserve pushthenationaldesk.com foxbusiness.com straitstimes.com. This threshold (midpoint of suggested range, ~1.75x current) captures uncertainty in policy aggressiveness without near-certainty outcomes.